The map drawers opted to draw “nested districts,” meaning the state senate districts are drawn to largely fit inside congressional districts, and House districts are drawn to fit within state Senate boundaries. The special masters said they could not use the 2021 election results, which were strong for Republicans, as a baseline measure of partisanship because many absentee ballots cannot be traced back to their original precinct.Ī bigger potential concern, Simon said, is whether the boundaries respect local communities of interest. “I’m a little skeptical that the maps are as good for Democrats as initial assessments would suggest,” said Simon, who under the proposed maps is put into a district with another incumbent Democrat, Mark Keam. In very good Democratic years, Democrats might perhaps achieve the 7-4 that they now enjoy from having won two highly competitive seats in 2020.” “Generally, however, we would expect to see a 6-5 Democratic edge in Virginia’s delegation. “In a very good Republican year, Republicans could win a majority of the seats in Virginia’s delegation,” the special masters wrote. Some analysts say the proposed district would be tougher for her to win than her current one. Under the draft map, the 2nd District has a very narrow 50-48 Democratic edge, based on election results from 20.
It is currently represented by Democratic Rep. The 2nd District, which covers Virginia Beach and parts of Hampton Roads, would be swing district, as it is now.
In a memo to the court, special masters Bernard Grofman and Sean Trende say six of the 11 districts have a Democratic lean, and four of the 11 lean Republican. Under the new maps, the 7th District becomes significantly more Democratic, but it is redrawn to have its main voting bloc in Prince William County in Democratic-leaning northern Virginia, rather than the Richmond area. Spanberger represents the 7th District in central Virginia, a swing district.
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